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Open Innovations is winding down and will no longer be commencing new work from May 2026.

Comparing future energy scenario data

One of the ways we are funded is through our sponsors. Two of our current sponsors - Northern Powergrid and National Grid - work in electricity distribution. Each year they create Future Energy Scenarios (FES/DFES) that model everything from the number of electric vehicles to the amount of solar power generation they expect at different points in the network for every year until 2050. They make these predictions under multiple scenarios to see different "pathways" to Net Zero.

For several years we've helped Northern Powergrid to visualise their DFES predictions. We make maps to compare areas over time and graphs to let them compare scenarios over time. A few weeks ago the team at Northern Powergrid asked us if we could make a FES comparison tool. They wanted to make it easy for those working within UK electricity distribution to provide files for different FES/DFES scenarios and then create a dashboard that compared them. So we took our existing experience with creating web-based tools for DFES data and built it.

A comparison tool

Screenshot showing five different scenarios (each a different colour) being compared. The top section has a coloured block for each scenario. Below that is a time slider to adjust the year range. Below that are three graphs showing the number of domestic customers, number of I&C customers, and number of electric vehicles each year from 2025 to 2050. Domestic customers grow from a bit under 4 million to over 4 million. I&C customers grow linearly from below 300,000 to over 300,000. EVs have different lines for each scenario. The reference scenario sees the fastest growth to roughly 5 million. The four other scenarios all take longer to rise and reach between 4-5 million by 2050.
A FES/DFES comparison tool
Credit: Open Innovations / Northern Powergrid

The tool takes flat CSV files with one row per scenario/FES-building-block/grid-supply-point (GSP) and with each year's value for that in separate columns. As a table it might look something like this:

Licence Area Voltage Level Scenario Name in DFES Output Parameter Grid Supply Point in DFES FES Scenario Building Block ID Number Unit DNO Licence area GSP in NG FES Share of GSP 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 Comment
NPgN GSP NPg Reference Scenario Number of domestic customers BLYTH 132kV (Not in FES) NPg Reference Scenario Dem_BB001a Number of NPgN Blyth 132kV 28872 29081 29290 29500 29709 29861 30014 30167 30319 30472 30622 30772 30922 31072 31222 31412 31602 31793 31983 32173 32448 32724 32999 33274 33550 33825 34101 34376
NPgN GSP NPg Reference Scenario Number of domestic customers BLYTH 66kV (Not in FES) NPg Reference Scenario Dem_BB001a Number of NPgN Blyth 66kV 105147 106022 106896 107771 108646 109343 110041 110738 111435 112133 112620 113108 113596 114084 114572 115460 116349 117237 118126 119014 120126 121238 122350 123462 124574 125686 126798 127909
NPgN GSP NPg Reference Scenario Number of domestic customers FOURSTONES (Not in FES) NPg Reference Scenario Dem_BB001a Number of NPgN Fourstones 8403 8421 8439 8457 8475 8488 8501 8514 8527 8539 8552 8564 8577 8590 8602 8618 8635 8651 8667 8684 8708 8733 8757 8781 8806 8830 8854 8879

The files should contain columns for "Licence area", "Scenario name", "Building Block ID" and "Grid Supply Point". We attempt to fuzzy-match for those names to deal with the different ways NESO and the DNOs label or spell things e.g. "licence" vs "license". 

With the files loaded, you can then select scenarios, limit to particular licence areas (e.g. "NPgY" which is Northern Powergrid's Yorkshire region) and even pick specific grid supply points to limit to. The tool then shows a dashboard with a variety of graphs ranging from the number of customers, to electric vehicles, to a breakdown by type of power generation.

Although the initial idea was just to compare two things, the tool will let you compare up to six scenarios at the same time. For instance, you to compare all five scenarios in Northern Powergrid's 2024 DFES and still have a spare slot.

We've used the 2025 FES scenario colours as the default colours for the comparisons but we've also added colour pickers to let people set their own.

As few people have appropriate building block CSV files to hand, we've added some buttons that will load examples for you. For instance, you can compare the five scenarios in Northern Powergrid's 2024 DFES, or compare Northern Powergrid's 2024 DFES to the National Energy System Operator's 2024 FES. Be aware that the NESO files cover a much larger region than DNOs so their files are a lot bigger. You should also make sure to limit to a particular licence area that matches one in the DNO's data for a fair comparison.

The hope is that this tool is helpful within Northern Powergrid, to other Distribution Network Operators, and to the National Energy System Operator.

This sort of small project is an example of the sorts of thing our sponsors can benefit from.